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Party Politics
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How Parties Affect Vote Choice in European Integration Referendums

Sara Binzer Hobolt

Quantitative Methods in Political Science at the University of Oxford, Nuffield College, Oxford, sara.hobolt{at}politics.ox.ac.uk

Direct democracy allows citizens to undercut the will of their elected representatives. Yet, while the electorate has the final say in referendums, political parties are in a privileged position to influence voters’ perceptions of the issue on the ballot. By developing a model on voting behaviour in referendums, this article examines how and to what extent parties can influence referendum outcomes. It argues that as pivotal information providers in referendum campaigns, political parties can influence the framing of and uncertainty associated with the ballot proposal and thus, in turn, affect voting behaviour. These propositions are evaluated empirically in a ‘controlled comparison’ of the two Danish referendums on the Maastricht Treaty, as these cases allow us to examine how changes in party strategies affect changes in referendum outcomes.

Key Words: campaign effects • European integration • issue framing • referendums • voting behaviour

Party Politics, Vol. 12, No. 5, 623-647 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/1354068806066791
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